ON-DEMAND WEBINAR
Budget season is underway, and last year’s actuals can mislead if you carry them forward unchanged.
In this expert session, Drew Slayton, Director of Hotel Intelligence at HotStats, shows where costs are really moving across the Americas, line by line and by chain scale. See which results are one-off, like the World Cup lift and Mexico’s cost drop, and which will carry into your forecast. Leave with specific assumptions to test, and a downside case to build.
Margins are expanding, but don’t assume it repeats. US GOPPAR is up 7.8% year to date, ahead of 5.2% revenue growth, with payroll and total expense per available room growing more slowly than revenue. June was lifted by the World Cup and other events.
For your forecast: Separate recurring corporate and leisure demand from one-time event nights before you set growth targets.
F&B and sales and marketing payroll are the lines to watch. F&B expense and sales and marketing payroll are each up almost 6%, and F&B payroll is up 5.5%. All three outpace revenue and are large enough to move your P&L.
For your forecast: Model these lines individually and test whether added payroll is producing profitable revenue.
Chain scale changes your cost structure. Payroll takes about 40% of revenue at luxury and about 24% at midscale, so luxury has far less room to absorb wage increases.
For your forecast: Don’t use one blanket payroll assumption. Stress test F&B, rooms, and banquets separately, and use the right template for each chain scale in a mixed portfolio.
Mexico’s lower cost base is not your new baseline. RevPAR is down 14% and GOPPAR is down 30%. Expense per room fell 8%, but only because operators cut variable spend as demand fell.
For your forecast: Build variable costs from expected occupied rooms and revenue, not by inflating 2026 actuals. Expect expenses to rise as demand recovers.
Benchmark your payroll and expenses against your competitive set, down to GOP.
