Asia-Pac hotel profits -45% to -216% y/y in February: bad for C-corps; leading indicator for U.S. REITS
What's Incremental To Our View
Our analysis of Asia-Pacific lodging data from HotStats indicates enormous declines in hotel revenues and profits. The virus demand shock impact is widespread in major China markets: YTD Total RevPAR down ~ 40-60% y/y; hotel profits down triple digits y/y. Other Asia-Pacific countries’ Feb. profits -45% to -122% y/y ex-India (flattish).
Impact
Hotel C-corps: Far lower Asia-Pac base and incentive fees for 1Q20 and likely the rest of 2020 as occupancies slowly rebound.
Lodging REITS: HotStats data an indicator for an ugly March and April in the U.S.; profits could be down at least 40-60% y/y.
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