Hotel P&L Analyzer: Nov. GOP margins -4,030 bps y/y on -79.2% Total RevPAR
Absolute GOP turned negative again after briefly being positive in October
What's Incremental To Our View
Based on “big data” observations from higher-rated U.S. hotels (data source: HotStats): November: -4,030 bps of y/y GOP margin "growth" on -79.2% Total RevPAR (Rooms RevPAR + outside-of- the-room spend). By comparison, October margins were -3,190 bps y/y on -79.3% Total RevPAR. November results went in the wrong direction as absolute GOP turned negative (-5.7% GOP % of Total Revenue vs. +8.9% in October).
4Q: we forecast property-level EBITDA margins for full-service hotels of -3,500 bps to -4,500 bps y/y with "sun and ski" resorts as relative outperformers and big box urban largely very weak.
In this month's P&L Analyzer, we focus on two fronts:
1. Insight and forecasts for 4Q20 hotel profits (based on October/November HotStats results) 2. Additional commentary on 4Q for the Lodging REITS.
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